The method

Nothing here is a black box. Every number the calculator shows is one of the four terms below, applied in this order, to open source data.

The four terms

Term one

Consensus

Published dynasty value at his rank, divided back out to peak age.

Term two

Age

The positional curve, re-applied for dynasty or redraft.

Term three

Format

Superflex measured from the source; PPR and TE premium as published multipliers.

Term four

League size

How far replacement level moves away from a 12-team baseline.

Step by step

1 · Start from published consensus, then undo its age curve

The source publishes one dynasty value per player, and that value already prices age. Adding our own age adjustment on top of it would count age twice.

So the published value is divided by the dynasty age factor for that player's age and position, recovering what his consensus rank is worth at the positional peak. That recovered number is the consensus term, and it is the base everything else multiplies.

2 · Re-apply the age curve for the mode you are in

Dynasty re-applies the same steep curve, so the number comes back to where it started and the age bar shows you how much of the price age was responsible for.

Redraft applies a much flatter curve instead, because a redraft trade buys one season. This is why a 32-year-old running back is nearly worthless in dynasty and a real asset in redraft, from identical source data.

3 · Apply the format

Superflex is not modelled. The source publishes a separate superflex value for every player and pick, so the superflex multiplier is that player's own measured ratio — typically about 3× for quarterbacks and about 0.77× for everyone else.

PPR and TE premium are our multipliers, relative to the source's full-PPR, no-premium baseline. They are in the tables below.

4 · Apply league size

Replacement level sits at roughly team count × starting slots for the position. In a deeper league the startable tier is scarcer and costs more, and bench depth is commodity; in a shallower league the reverse. The term is zero at twelve teams by construction.

5 · Compare the two sides

Each side is summed and the difference is measured against the larger side. Inside ±5% the trade is called even, because that band is noise. Beyond that the bands are 15% and 35%.

The age curves

Age : factor knots, interpolated linearly between them. Factor 1.00 is the positional peak.
PosPeakDynasty curveRedraft curve
QB24-30 21:0.92 24:1.00 30:1.00 33:0.88 36:0.62 40:0.35 22:0.97 25:1.00 36:1.00 39:0.90
RB23-25 21:0.98 23:1.00 25:1.00 26:0.90 27:0.78 28:0.62 30:0.38 32:0.20 22:0.97 24:1.00 28:1.00 30:0.92 32:0.80
WR24-27 21:0.95 24:1.00 27:1.00 28:0.93 29:0.85 30:0.72 32:0.48 34:0.28 22:0.94 25:1.00 30:1.00 32:0.93 34:0.84
TE25-28 21:0.90 25:1.00 28:1.00 29:0.92 30:0.84 32:0.62 34:0.40 22:0.90 25:1.00 31:1.00 33:0.92

Scoring multipliers

ScoringQBRBWRTE
Standard1.041.100.940.90
Half PPR1.021.050.970.95
Full PPR (baseline)1.001.001.001.00

TE premium multipliers

PremiumQBRBWRTE
None (baseline)1.001.001.001.00
TE +0.50.990.980.971.16
TE +10.980.960.941.32

What this model cannot see

Stated plainly, because a method page that only lists strengths is an advertisement.

  • No live trade market. Values come from published consensus, not from observed completed trades. The calculator cannot tell you what a player actually fetched this month.
  • No injury pricing. Where a player carries a designation the calculator flags it and leaves the number alone.
  • No recent-form term. Week-to-week production is not in the model.
  • No roster context. It does not know that you already start three running backs.
  • The scoring and league-size multipliers are reasoned, not fitted. They are the weakest part of the model and the first thing the ledger will test.